* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 111 108 98 89 81 75 75 70 72 71 73 74 77 77 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 111 108 98 89 81 75 75 55 43 42 44 45 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 108 104 96 88 82 78 76 57 42 45 48 52 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 13 19 15 16 16 17 9 9 11 9 14 9 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 4 2 10 3 -2 0 0 1 0 1 -3 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 347 341 312 283 296 269 279 240 278 206 240 209 211 206 250 236 304 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 29.5 28.8 28.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 150 155 155 164 158 161 159 157 148 161 148 150 161 159 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 7 8 6 9 7 11 8 12 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 67 65 64 68 66 70 68 70 69 71 69 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 21 17 15 14 13 14 12 12 11 10 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 28 42 31 36 48 52 70 67 48 57 5 9 -7 -9 5 2 26 200 MB DIV 12 23 28 31 33 47 63 50 12 26 0 33 57 34 19 32 15 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 10 12 19 28 19 -3 2 -4 2 0 2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 141 126 284 358 340 242 176 162 258 200 -54 25 142 184 103 37 16 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 62.3 64.0 66.0 67.9 71.8 75.7 79.3 82.7 85.9 88.8 91.3 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 19 19 19 17 16 14 13 11 10 10 7 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 27 42 52 95 51 74 39 44 24 39 19 20 31 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -11. -10. -7. -4. -2. 1. 4. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -17. -22. -23. -25. -25. -25. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -7. -17. -26. -34. -40. -40. -45. -43. -44. -42. -41. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.0 60.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.5% 9.8% 7.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.4% 13.1% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 10.4% 5.6% 3.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 24.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.2% 10.2% 7.8% 2.6% 2.3% .2% .2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 4 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/01/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 21( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 52 63( 82) 71( 95) 68( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 114 111 108 98 89 81 75 75 55 43 42 44 45 48 48 18HR AGO 115 114 113 110 107 97 88 80 74 74 54 42 41 43 44 47 47 12HR AGO 115 112 111 108 105 95 86 78 72 72 52 40 39 41 42 45 45 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 92 83 75 69 69 49 37 36 38 39 42 42 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 86 77 69 63 63 43 31 30 32 33 36 36 IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 90 81 73 67 67 47 35 34 36 37 40 40 IN 12HR 115 115 114 105 99 95 86 78 72 72 52 40 39 41 42 45 45