* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/01/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 102 101 96 87 81 80 79 81 84 82 83 75 73 73 V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 102 101 96 87 81 80 79 81 44 47 47 40 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 98 96 92 86 81 77 75 76 43 48 51 52 53 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 11 13 17 14 19 8 10 7 16 11 13 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 6 5 8 4 8 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 3 346 327 294 280 293 260 277 269 277 278 248 261 245 279 313 321 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 153 155 150 155 160 160 161 153 150 158 169 152 154 158 166 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 10 9 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 64 67 67 62 65 65 65 64 63 62 64 65 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 20 16 15 16 15 16 16 15 15 9 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 45 36 39 46 52 61 41 31 16 -5 -3 -12 3 19 0 200 MB DIV 18 13 14 41 47 48 52 70 25 15 20 19 21 31 37 22 41 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 3 10 20 27 19 -2 -8 -12 1 -5 0 -8 -5 0 LAND (KM) 180 128 149 288 362 294 215 97 315 284 12 -38 247 284 214 118 -88 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.8 62.5 64.3 66.1 70.1 74.0 77.7 81.3 84.5 87.4 90.1 92.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 19 20 20 18 18 17 15 14 14 11 7 6 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 22 31 45 105 60 111 37 65 37 30 37 27 29 40 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -17. -20. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -8. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. -24. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -9. -18. -24. -25. -26. -24. -21. -23. -22. -30. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 11.5 59.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.2% 7.8% 6.5% 6.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 33.0% 23.0% 21.0% 9.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.8% 14.5% 12.2% 5.8% 6.7% 2.6% .2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/01/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 23( 57) 19( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 43 27( 58) 30( 71) 59( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 102 101 96 87 81 80 79 81 44 47 47 40 37 32 18HR AGO 105 104 103 103 102 97 88 82 81 80 82 45 48 48 41 38 33 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 100 95 86 80 79 78 80 43 46 46 39 36 31 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 89 80 74 73 72 74 37 40 40 33 30 25 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 72 66 65 64 66 29 32 32 25 22 17 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 81 72 66 65 64 66 29 32 32 25 22 17 IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 74 68 67 66 68 31 34 34 27 24 19