* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 113 112 107 99 91 87 81 83 80 79 80 80 84 84 V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 113 112 107 99 91 87 81 83 61 47 48 49 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 114 112 109 104 97 91 86 81 78 59 45 48 52 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 9 7 13 13 18 20 18 9 11 15 11 12 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 5 3 6 3 -3 4 0 0 -2 2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 31 341 333 324 295 288 265 271 258 278 224 250 243 269 231 296 233 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 29.1 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 153 155 150 155 160 160 158 150 155 148 154 152 162 166 167 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 9 11 10 9 7 9 7 10 8 11 8 12 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 64 65 68 64 64 67 67 73 67 68 67 67 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 20 20 17 15 15 14 17 15 13 13 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 29 41 38 48 53 66 67 34 35 -1 -2 -11 -15 -6 4 200 MB DIV 60 21 10 19 43 45 48 56 67 16 34 -2 14 30 29 10 27 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 1 6 10 10 20 12 -4 -3 -7 3 -2 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 316 165 125 143 305 354 218 134 132 316 186 -81 66 321 195 98 36 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.8 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 59.0 60.7 62.5 64.3 68.1 72.1 75.7 79.4 82.8 85.7 88.5 91.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 20 19 18 18 15 14 13 12 12 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 50 34 22 22 32 67 70 54 63 52 68 12 32 36 33 42 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -6. -11. -12. -15. -12. -16. -19. -19. -19. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -3. -8. -16. -24. -28. -34. -32. -35. -36. -35. -35. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.2 57.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 14.8% 10.8% 8.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 11.0% 6.2% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 19.7% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 15.2% 7.0% 3.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.2% 14.6% 10.5% 3.9% 2.6% 1.0% .4% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/01/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/01/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 27( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 73 28( 81) 42( 89) 38( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 115 113 112 107 99 91 87 81 83 61 47 48 49 52 52 18HR AGO 115 114 113 111 110 105 97 89 85 79 81 59 45 46 47 50 50 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 108 103 95 87 83 77 79 57 43 44 45 48 48 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 99 91 83 79 73 75 53 39 40 41 44 44 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 91 83 75 71 65 67 45 31 32 33 36 36 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 95 87 79 75 69 71 49 35 36 37 40 40 IN 12HR 115 116 115 106 100 96 88 80 76 70 72 50 36 37 38 41 41