* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 122 119 115 106 100 91 85 81 77 76 77 79 83 82 83 V (KT) LAND 115 121 122 119 115 106 100 91 85 81 77 76 45 46 50 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 115 123 123 120 116 109 102 95 90 85 81 78 47 46 49 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 11 10 14 14 16 13 19 9 11 11 14 8 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 1 5 2 10 0 0 3 -2 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 31 37 337 331 323 275 288 260 259 265 258 237 227 242 233 248 228 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.9 29.4 29.8 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 153 155 155 160 160 161 154 152 160 167 151 155 161 167 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 63 65 68 67 64 69 70 73 73 71 70 70 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 20 19 17 18 14 15 16 16 16 14 13 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 35 30 41 44 49 55 70 52 43 22 -11 -8 -17 -16 2 200 MB DIV 79 46 20 -5 8 40 65 71 72 50 25 -5 28 35 24 16 7 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -2 2 3 5 13 20 23 0 0 -4 2 -1 3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 475 296 153 108 145 373 300 226 120 322 248 67 -106 161 324 220 108 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 14.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.5 59.2 60.8 62.5 66.2 70.2 73.9 77.8 81.3 84.2 87.0 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 20 19 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 48 31 22 22 45 104 63 121 34 52 39 5 24 29 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -26. -28. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -6. -3. -0. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -18. -20. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 4. 0. -9. -15. -24. -30. -34. -38. -39. -38. -36. -32. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 10.9 55.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 16.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.9% 39.4% 36.5% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.5% 19.0% 11.7% 4.5% 2.0% 5.4% 9.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 20.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 29.8% 20.5% 16.6% 9.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 35.0% 18.0% 20.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 32.4% 19.2% 18.3% 9.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% .4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/30/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 34( 54) 31( 69) 27( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 76 67( 92) 57( 97) 52( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 121 122 119 115 106 100 91 85 81 77 76 45 46 50 49 50 18HR AGO 115 114 115 112 108 99 93 84 78 74 70 69 38 39 43 42 43 12HR AGO 115 112 111 108 104 95 89 80 74 70 66 65 34 35 39 38 39 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 92 86 77 71 67 63 62 31 32 36 35 36 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 87 81 72 66 62 58 57 26 27 31 30 31 IN 6HR 115 121 112 106 103 97 91 82 76 72 68 67 36 37 41 40 41 IN 12HR 115 121 122 113 107 103 97 88 82 78 74 73 42 43 47 46 47