* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 115 115 113 109 104 97 91 88 81 82 82 84 85 85 87 V (KT) LAND 105 112 115 115 113 109 104 97 91 88 81 82 64 47 48 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 105 114 117 116 113 110 107 101 97 94 89 86 67 46 49 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 6 6 9 5 19 11 16 14 17 10 10 18 15 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 2 3 0 2 1 3 -1 2 2 3 -1 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 27 28 31 335 333 316 298 266 276 246 280 222 242 228 253 223 290 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.7 29.0 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 148 150 153 150 154 160 159 158 151 155 153 164 152 155 166 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 9 7 9 7 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 67 68 70 66 66 70 68 74 72 71 67 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 21 20 20 17 16 17 17 18 17 16 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 46 39 38 41 52 56 76 75 41 54 7 -3 -9 -12 7 200 MB DIV 87 88 44 18 -16 20 38 61 73 75 19 43 8 41 47 46 12 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 2 3 4 8 10 21 7 -7 0 -8 3 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 529 483 324 170 125 283 333 228 186 150 306 211 -45 21 231 312 133 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 13.2 14.5 15.7 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.6 57.3 59.0 60.7 64.2 68.0 72.1 75.7 79.1 82.5 85.6 88.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 19 20 19 17 17 16 14 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 54 50 32 22 29 55 74 53 83 41 64 26 38 37 28 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -15. -16. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 5. 4. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -3. 0. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -12. -11. -13. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. -1. -8. -14. -17. -24. -23. -23. -21. -20. -20. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 10.6 54.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 20.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.5% 51.9% 45.4% 36.4% 18.5% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.7% 40.1% 30.5% 17.5% 8.4% 17.1% 13.5% 6.2% Bayesian: 35.2% 8.0% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 40.5% 33.3% 27.5% 18.4% 9.1% 11.9% 4.5% 2.1% DTOPS: 38.0% 21.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 39.2% 27.1% 21.2% 12.7% 5.5% 9.4% 3.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/30/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 31( 50) 30( 65) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 63( 74) 26( 81) 37( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 112 115 115 113 109 104 97 91 88 81 82 64 47 48 48 50 18HR AGO 105 104 107 107 105 101 96 89 83 80 73 74 56 39 40 40 42 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 99 95 90 83 77 74 67 68 50 33 34 34 36 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 89 84 77 71 68 61 62 44 27 28 28 30 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 77 70 64 61 54 55 37 20 21 21 23 IN 6HR 105 112 103 97 94 92 87 80 74 71 64 65 47 30 31 31 33 IN 12HR 105 112 115 106 100 96 91 84 78 75 68 69 51 34 35 35 37