* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/30/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 99 104 106 106 103 95 89 85 82 83 82 81 84 83 V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 99 104 106 106 103 95 89 85 82 83 52 43 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 95 99 103 107 109 106 100 95 92 89 87 54 43 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 2 6 9 10 11 16 13 16 10 10 10 19 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 0 0 1 2 4 0 6 1 1 3 0 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 25 31 35 43 340 330 276 292 260 286 266 273 261 244 266 263 260 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.0 29.4 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 152 156 153 160 160 155 157 149 154 160 150 155 161 168 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 66 67 68 69 69 66 69 69 74 71 71 66 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 17 17 18 18 20 18 17 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 50 41 37 42 40 49 59 77 68 55 35 -8 -9 -6 1 200 MB DIV 49 77 79 35 30 31 35 50 58 64 30 39 19 35 32 53 41 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -9 -6 -2 4 3 11 19 12 2 -3 -11 1 -2 5 3 LAND (KM) 558 557 458 295 149 141 385 320 226 126 259 262 78 -137 19 272 220 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.8 14.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.2 54.0 55.7 57.2 58.8 62.5 66.0 69.8 74.0 77.6 80.6 83.6 86.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 16 17 19 18 20 19 16 15 15 14 10 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 47 54 43 22 51 110 58 112 33 48 44 4 31 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -13. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 26. 23. 15. 9. 5. 2. 3. 2. 1. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 10.5 52.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 17.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.40 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.9% 59.1% 46.4% 38.7% 26.3% 37.8% 29.3% 23.7% Logistic: 38.0% 55.9% 45.1% 34.5% 23.2% 28.6% 20.8% 14.4% Bayesian: 59.1% 89.8% 76.4% 51.5% 37.1% 27.4% 2.4% 2.0% Consensus: 42.0% 68.2% 56.0% 41.5% 28.9% 31.3% 17.5% 13.4% DTOPS: 61.0% 90.0% 80.0% 71.0% 59.0% 73.0% 60.0% 2.0% SDCON: 51.5% 79.1% 68.0% 56.2% 43.9% 52.1% 38.7% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/30/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 16( 22) 26( 42) 27( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 32( 35) 68( 79) 30( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 88 94 99 104 106 106 103 95 89 85 82 83 52 43 46 45 18HR AGO 80 79 85 90 95 97 97 94 86 80 76 73 74 43 34 37 36 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 86 88 88 85 77 71 67 64 65 34 25 28 27 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 75 77 77 74 66 60 56 53 54 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 88 79 73 70 69 69 66 58 52 48 45 46 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 88 94 85 79 75 75 72 64 58 54 51 52 21 DIS DIS DIS