* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 96 102 107 109 107 99 95 93 87 87 90 89 89 93 V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 96 102 107 109 107 99 95 93 87 87 90 52 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 75 84 91 97 102 109 110 110 105 100 97 92 89 87 51 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 10 2 9 6 17 11 17 9 11 10 7 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 1 2 1 0 0 2 5 2 1 2 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 43 19 26 33 54 322 310 290 267 271 250 269 240 260 202 253 224 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.5 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 152 153 156 153 155 158 153 156 153 151 161 155 161 164 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 7 8 6 9 7 11 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 64 65 66 67 67 66 67 69 69 75 72 76 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 20 20 21 17 18 19 18 19 20 20 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 42 43 37 34 37 44 49 57 64 43 37 12 22 4 8 200 MB DIV 39 32 51 62 41 10 28 30 55 65 73 9 40 15 66 53 65 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -9 -7 -5 2 0 7 8 20 4 -3 -2 -5 8 -5 9 LAND (KM) 603 574 575 477 305 93 331 348 176 135 99 358 289 46 -137 107 322 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.5 13.7 14.9 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 52.0 53.8 55.5 57.1 60.6 64.3 68.0 71.8 75.5 79.0 82.1 84.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 16 17 18 18 19 18 18 16 14 12 11 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 40 33 33 45 54 27 39 69 52 49 79 46 83 41 4 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -5. -4. -4. -7. -6. -4. -6. -7. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 34. 32. 24. 20. 18. 12. 12. 15. 14. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 10.2 50.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 17.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.44 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.5% 62.2% 48.6% 42.5% 28.4% 42.1% 33.5% 26.2% Logistic: 33.0% 54.6% 41.1% 27.0% 19.9% 36.2% 24.0% 22.0% Bayesian: 57.5% 92.7% 84.8% 59.9% 32.3% 44.6% 7.8% 4.1% Consensus: 40.0% 69.8% 58.2% 43.1% 26.9% 41.0% 21.8% 17.4% DTOPS: 48.0% 73.0% 58.0% 50.0% 25.0% 60.0% 84.0% 5.0% SDCON: 44.0% 71.4% 58.1% 46.5% 25.9% 50.5% 52.9% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/30/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/30/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 12( 16) 24( 36) 27( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 12( 14) 14( 26) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 83 90 96 102 107 109 107 99 95 93 87 87 90 52 47 51 18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 93 98 100 98 90 86 84 78 78 81 43 38 42 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 83 88 90 88 80 76 74 68 68 71 33 28 32 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 71 76 78 76 68 64 62 56 56 59 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 83 74 68 65 65 67 65 57 53 51 45 45 48 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 83 90 81 75 71 73 71 63 59 57 51 51 54 16 DIS DIS