* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 75 81 87 95 96 94 87 82 77 74 71 72 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 60 68 75 81 87 95 96 94 87 82 77 74 71 72 58 37 42 V (KT) LGEM 60 69 76 83 88 97 102 101 98 93 88 86 83 81 65 39 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 13 12 6 12 15 17 17 10 17 13 13 10 17 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -6 -5 0 -1 0 1 -2 4 1 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 33 14 11 10 314 326 286 301 266 290 263 286 271 247 252 231 SST (C) 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 30.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 152 151 153 156 153 160 160 154 153 153 157 155 152 171 158 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 65 66 68 68 69 69 68 67 67 69 68 71 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 19 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 33 34 32 28 33 31 40 41 51 34 11 6 -7 -6 -12 200 MB DIV 34 27 18 16 47 34 13 23 61 57 47 35 38 21 23 32 65 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -11 -10 -8 -1 0 2 8 19 4 0 -8 -11 -2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 700 623 591 584 498 131 103 396 285 183 54 131 286 203 -60 -7 171 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.2 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.2 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 50.2 51.9 53.5 55.2 58.8 62.2 66.0 70.1 73.7 76.7 79.6 82.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 18 18 20 19 17 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 37 32 31 41 51 23 52 98 55 71 53 64 77 27 40 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 27. 35. 36. 34. 27. 22. 17. 14. 11. 12. 15. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.0 48.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 18.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 5.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 6.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 68.0% 51.9% 46.0% 28.1% 51.6% 45.5% 35.9% Logistic: 37.3% 61.1% 50.2% 34.3% 24.6% 49.0% 40.1% 38.3% Bayesian: 40.2% 85.0% 73.2% 36.1% 16.4% 62.3% 36.6% 21.5% Consensus: 34.5% 71.3% 58.4% 38.8% 23.1% 54.3% 40.7% 31.9% DTOPS: 54.0% 81.0% 62.0% 48.0% 30.0% 54.0% 79.0% 25.0% SDCON: 44.2% 76.1% 60.2% 43.4% 26.5% 54.1% 59.8% 28.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/29/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 10( 15) 17( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 8( 9) 19( 26) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 68 75 81 87 95 96 94 87 82 77 74 71 72 58 37 42 18HR AGO 60 59 66 72 78 86 87 85 78 73 68 65 62 63 49 28 33 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 68 76 77 75 68 63 58 55 52 53 39 18 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 64 65 63 56 51 46 43 40 41 27 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT