* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/29/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 78 85 94 99 99 97 91 85 82 78 78 76 77 74 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 78 85 94 99 99 97 91 85 68 72 72 70 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 71 79 86 98 106 108 107 102 94 76 82 78 73 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 9 1 8 5 17 10 18 15 23 18 22 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -5 2 0 3 0 1 1 7 2 2 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 43 49 49 37 13 355 289 277 280 264 278 253 275 237 253 227 240 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 148 151 151 153 156 155 155 158 152 157 153 157 158 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 66 64 66 68 69 69 67 66 69 66 70 67 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 18 19 19 20 19 20 17 16 16 16 17 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 37 41 40 39 35 33 36 45 52 50 53 20 13 11 18 1 200 MB DIV 32 49 32 50 24 52 26 45 45 67 62 65 34 47 1 48 38 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -9 -9 -9 -7 0 0 4 15 10 10 0 -4 -4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 790 707 637 601 596 278 69 338 351 176 127 -8 282 205 35 -109 11 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.9 57.2 60.7 64.4 68.1 71.8 75.2 78.2 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 19 19 18 16 14 14 15 12 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 47 32 31 32 57 28 40 72 52 53 89 45 95 37 9 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 23. 30. 39. 44. 44. 42. 36. 30. 27. 23. 23. 21. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.8 46.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 18.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 9.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.57 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 6.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 67.8% 50.6% 41.6% 23.8% 54.3% 59.2% 53.1% Logistic: 30.8% 63.3% 53.4% 32.2% 19.9% 43.7% 25.6% 36.1% Bayesian: 24.6% 77.0% 45.8% 14.8% 6.1% 44.5% 24.6% 28.6% Consensus: 26.4% 69.4% 49.9% 29.5% 16.6% 47.5% 36.5% 39.2% DTOPS: 20.0% 38.0% 20.0% 28.0% 8.0% 8.0% 46.0% 33.0% SDCON: 23.2% 53.7% 34.9% 28.7% 12.3% 27.7% 41.2% 36.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/29/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 10( 14) 16( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 70 78 85 94 99 99 97 91 85 68 72 72 70 42 38 18HR AGO 55 54 61 69 76 85 90 90 88 82 76 59 63 63 61 33 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 59 66 75 80 80 78 72 66 49 53 53 51 23 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 61 66 66 64 58 52 35 39 39 37 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT