* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/29/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 62 73 78 87 85 87 84 80 77 75 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 62 73 78 87 85 87 84 80 73 71 68 55 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 54 59 71 81 88 91 89 86 82 77 73 69 55 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 6 6 3 5 8 14 15 12 13 20 18 24 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 1 5 5 4 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 48 51 60 42 6 282 310 273 301 262 264 255 240 236 232 229 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 150 151 149 151 153 153 155 160 158 156 155 152 158 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 66 66 67 66 67 68 68 66 69 69 69 67 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 18 21 18 19 17 14 14 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 34 40 39 40 36 40 42 49 61 61 49 47 52 35 27 200 MB DIV 56 47 59 49 58 55 35 24 26 37 64 69 37 38 11 30 35 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -8 -8 -7 -7 -3 3 7 8 15 18 1 4 -3 1 2 LAND (KM) 959 850 762 675 635 516 138 68 352 276 151 20 123 275 191 -30 -91 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 46.4 48.1 49.9 51.6 54.9 58.4 61.9 65.6 69.3 72.9 76.4 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 67 51 36 30 37 42 24 56 118 51 71 57 68 85 31 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. -0. 0. -4. -9. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 33. 38. 47. 45. 47. 44. 40. 37. 35. 32. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.7 44.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 45.9% 30.4% 13.3% 7.4% 27.3% 41.0% 59.0% Logistic: 17.5% 47.2% 29.0% 8.4% 5.5% 26.7% 29.4% 39.3% Bayesian: 8.1% 55.6% 16.0% 1.3% 1.3% 17.0% 18.8% 46.1% Consensus: 10.7% 49.5% 25.1% 7.7% 4.7% 23.7% 29.7% 48.2% DTOPS: 7.0% 27.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 38.0% 53.0% SDCON: 8.8% 38.2% 18.0% 6.3% 3.3% 16.8% 33.8% 50.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/29/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 56 62 73 78 87 85 87 84 80 73 71 68 55 36 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 56 67 72 81 79 81 78 74 67 65 62 49 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 48 59 64 73 71 73 70 66 59 57 54 41 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 47 52 61 59 61 58 54 47 45 42 29 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT