* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 06/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 54 66 77 86 89 94 92 89 88 86 85 84 85 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 54 66 77 86 89 94 92 89 84 81 80 80 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 71 82 90 93 90 84 71 77 75 73 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 7 2 8 6 15 8 14 9 17 17 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 -4 0 0 1 2 4 1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 30 43 44 41 21 333 330 290 278 258 279 253 268 238 252 227 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 153 150 153 149 153 155 153 151 156 156 157 151 152 159 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 66 65 66 63 64 66 66 65 66 57 58 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 19 20 21 18 21 18 15 15 13 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 21 37 39 40 39 35 43 45 63 53 69 50 55 42 30 200 MB DIV 60 49 51 54 38 52 44 14 36 42 74 46 33 11 17 4 37 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -10 -8 -7 -6 -5 6 5 10 7 12 1 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1099 958 840 751 665 596 365 77 267 327 179 112 17 293 261 129 -83 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 44.4 46.2 47.9 49.7 53.1 56.4 60.0 63.7 67.3 70.9 74.5 78.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 19 18 18 18 16 14 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 69 55 40 29 46 27 37 59 57 55 100 45 93 62 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 31. 36. 40. 43. 46. 47. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 3. 6. 2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 31. 42. 52. 54. 59. 57. 54. 53. 51. 50. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.2 42.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 35.4% 19.6% 9.3% 6.6% 17.5% 30.2% 54.5% Logistic: 9.6% 36.5% 18.9% 5.9% 4.7% 25.5% 35.7% 43.7% Bayesian: 3.7% 45.8% 10.8% 1.0% 0.5% 11.8% 39.4% 54.7% Consensus: 6.0% 39.2% 16.5% 5.4% 3.9% 18.3% 35.1% 50.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 11.0% 69.0% SDCON: 5.0% 26.6% 10.7% 3.7% 2.4% 10.6% 23.0% 59.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 06/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 06/29/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 48 54 66 77 86 89 94 92 89 84 81 80 80 57 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 49 61 72 81 84 89 87 84 79 76 75 75 52 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 54 65 74 77 82 80 77 72 69 68 68 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 54 63 66 71 69 66 61 58 57 57 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT