* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012024 06/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 40 41 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 40 41 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 9 14 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -3 2 1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 344 26 55 33 28 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 166 168 140 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.0 -49.7 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 10 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 73 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 16 15 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 175 166 147 138 172 164 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 54 51 75 68 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -9 0 1 -8 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 297 379 330 240 138 -86 -337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.6 94.4 95.4 96.4 98.6 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 31 35 44 45 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 92.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012024 ONE 06/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 23.4% 12.1% 8.7% 5.9% 11.8% 10.9% 19.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.9% 3.9% 3.9% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 86.7% Consensus: 2.1% 12.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.3% 5.4% 5.1% 37.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 7.1% 4.0% 2.3% 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 18.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012024 ONE 06/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012024 ONE 06/19/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 40 41 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 39 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT