* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012024 06/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 48 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 48 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 45 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 3 10 17 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 48 85 1 50 51 41 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 28.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 161 162 165 167 138 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.3 -49.0 -49.3 -49.3 -48.7 -49.3 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 7 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 70 68 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 158 167 169 165 147 173 165 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 80 94 62 44 70 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -8 -9 4 -4 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 305 361 326 251 87 -137 -392 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.4 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.1 93.5 94.4 95.3 96.9 99.1 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 8 9 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 32 32 34 43 41 13 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.6 92.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012024 ONE 06/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 21.8% 11.8% 8.4% 5.8% 12.4% 12.1% 19.1% Logistic: 1.9% 11.4% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 3.3% 4.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 91.5% Consensus: 1.8% 11.3% 6.2% 3.5% 2.1% 5.3% 5.6% 38.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 7.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% 2.8% 19.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012024 ONE 06/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012024 ONE 06/18/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 48 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 45 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 39 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT