* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012024 06/18/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 62 64 63 52 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 62 64 53 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 55 61 54 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 3 3 10 10 31 42 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 -1 -8 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 334 308 95 58 29 44 21 18 39 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.1 29.0 28.4 28.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 164 162 168 170 150 140 142 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.1 -49.4 -48.9 -49.7 -49.3 -50.3 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 6 9 10 6 11 8 11 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 70 72 70 72 75 77 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 184 166 157 164 164 136 160 140 84 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 88 69 74 81 42 64 18 17 1 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 -8 -1 1 -10 8 -16 -20 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 273 293 355 360 240 105 -30 -142 -263 -404 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.1 93.1 93.6 94.0 95.4 96.7 98.0 99.1 100.3 101.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 30 31 32 32 45 46 21 15 14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 6. 2. -4. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 29. 28. 18. 9. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 93.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012024 ONE 06/18/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 38.1% 23.0% 9.8% 6.7% 17.7% 17.7% 20.1% Logistic: 5.2% 29.5% 19.6% 11.4% 3.3% 12.9% 10.2% 5.6% Bayesian: 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 2.6% 2.5% 92.9% Consensus: 4.1% 23.3% 15.0% 7.4% 3.4% 11.1% 10.2% 39.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 15.1% 9.0% 4.7% 2.2% 6.5% 5.6% 19.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012024 ONE 06/18/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012024 ONE 06/18/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 55 62 64 53 36 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 57 59 48 31 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 49 51 40 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 37 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT