* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912024 06/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 44 48 47 44 39 38 42 44 42 43 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 44 42 32 29 28 27 30 32 31 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 29 27 29 26 24 24 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 15 18 26 25 34 35 44 32 11 16 24 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 6 5 1 3 4 0 0 -1 -1 4 4 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 238 213 182 128 102 95 81 77 72 58 58 51 84 134 128 115 110 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.0 27.2 27.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 163 163 166 168 151 127 128 140 143 144 141 138 137 133 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.5 -50.2 -51.2 -50.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 6 6 10 7 10 7 7 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 76 73 74 70 72 73 68 65 63 66 63 64 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 148 175 194 183 194 219 200 222 198 162 138 90 69 47 30 8 2 200 MB DIV 137 124 107 98 99 66 15 12 -8 39 51 35 3 0 2 -15 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 3 6 -1 1 -1 -2 -4 3 -5 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 93 152 196 198 187 190 147 -1 -220 -54 152 328 433 469 509 550 531 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.0 17.9 16.9 16.0 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.2 93.6 93.8 93.8 94.1 94.9 96.4 98.4 101.0 103.4 105.3 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 3 1 1 2 6 9 12 13 11 8 6 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 27 27 27 27 25 15 3 3 9 29 33 25 15 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -19. -24. -25. -27. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 14. 18. 17. 14. 9. 8. 12. 14. 13. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 92.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912024 INVEST 06/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.76 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 16.8% 10.5% 6.8% 4.1% 10.5% 10.3% 14.4% Logistic: 5.2% 19.6% 9.7% 6.6% 2.1% 8.1% 8.7% 6.8% Bayesian: 2.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 1.9% 0.7% 40.3% Consensus: 3.3% 12.6% 7.1% 4.7% 2.1% 6.8% 6.5% 20.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912024 INVEST 06/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912024 INVEST 06/17/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 42 44 42 32 29 28 27 30 32 31 32 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 39 41 39 29 26 25 24 27 29 28 29 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 36 34 24 21 20 19 22 24 23 24 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 28 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT