* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 45 47 45 44 41 38 38 42 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 45 47 45 44 41 38 38 42 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 32 33 33 32 31 30 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 4 8 8 11 19 18 24 25 36 34 32 23 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 8 7 5 0 -2 1 4 5 -2 0 0 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 135 110 235 217 167 195 207 223 268 296 264 298 306 316 316 313 310 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 125 122 121 121 123 125 126 123 124 126 126 125 125 125 126 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 57 55 54 52 53 49 50 51 55 55 57 56 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 14 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 26 34 39 46 81 69 55 33 9 -19 -29 -23 -21 -19 -29 200 MB DIV 59 66 65 41 12 13 -11 -5 8 7 -18 -3 8 20 2 -26 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 1 5 6 7 7 9 6 8 4 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1769 1876 1929 1951 1951 1953 2016 2109 2222 2328 2275 2207 2147 2114 2094 2071 2036 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.4 17.5 18.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 24.3 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.0 35.5 35.7 35.7 35.7 36.2 37.1 38.4 39.5 40.7 41.7 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 7 3 1 1 4 7 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 19 19 19 18 22 24 18 16 13 8 9 10 13 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 38. 39. 38. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 20. 19. 16. 13. 13. 17. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 34.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.5% 10.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 12.0% 8.1% 2.5% 0.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 6.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.6% 6.6% 3.1% 0.2% 1.0% 6.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/18/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 45 47 45 44 41 38 38 42 47 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 37 40 42 44 42 41 38 35 35 39 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 32 35 37 39 37 36 33 30 30 34 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 27 29 31 29 28 25 22 22 26 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT