* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 37 45 56 61 68 71 80 75 63 54 44 39 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 26 34 43 36 40 47 49 58 40 31 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 21 23 29 33 30 34 37 41 46 35 29 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 6 9 9 15 11 16 10 6 13 20 32 39 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -1 1 0 3 -2 7 -3 0 5 3 4 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 343 278 248 285 307 311 305 308 317 191 190 193 207 236 253 269 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.3 30.6 30.7 30.9 30.6 30.6 29.3 28.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 153 150 154 155 155 151 155 171 172 173 173 173 158 146 117 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -49.4 -49.8 -50.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 67 65 67 63 66 64 70 70 75 67 59 53 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 11 12 15 16 20 20 26 24 18 13 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 30 35 27 41 33 34 20 37 41 57 24 30 -14 -27 -73 200 MB DIV 36 27 23 38 47 54 50 66 61 54 39 72 71 74 37 48 0 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 11 8 8 19 11 9 LAND (KM) 90 30 0 -16 2 6 9 -18 57 244 422 117 -165 -322 -380 -293 -71 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.4 21.0 22.1 23.8 26.0 28.8 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.8 87.0 87.2 87.2 87.3 87.2 87.0 86.9 86.8 86.6 85.9 85.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 1 2 0 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 32 31 33 34 34 30 34 102 140 43 7 6 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 24. 30. 34. 35. 37. 36. 33. 30. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 13. 21. 17. 7. -0. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 36. 41. 48. 51. 60. 55. 43. 34. 24. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 86.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 25.4% 13.7% 3.8% 1.3% 8.1% 11.2% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 1.9% 9.4% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5% 2.7% 3.8% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 26 34 43 36 40 47 49 58 40 31 28 28 28 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 24 32 41 34 38 45 47 56 38 29 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 21 29 38 31 35 42 44 53 35 26 23 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT