* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 41 41 41 40 41 41 43 47 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 41 41 41 40 41 41 43 47 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 39 38 34 31 28 27 28 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 5 7 9 21 31 30 14 8 17 27 38 40 49 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 1 -3 2 7 7 17 13 5 3 6 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 278 296 292 290 323 29 35 34 52 73 165 203 288 284 256 228 239 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.2 25.4 22.1 18.2 18.9 21.2 23.1 22.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 153 155 154 149 142 132 116 94 79 79 88 96 91 89 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -52.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -49.5 -50.3 -50.7 -52.1 -53.4 -55.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 6 3 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 66 64 60 53 49 40 27 32 38 35 30 25 22 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -65 -62 -62 -66 -77 -90 -13 3 0 -45 -58 -12 -13 -23 -21 20 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -14 1 -25 -14 -22 8 58 0 42 33 -15 -36 -44 -4 32 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 3 -2 14 4 -13 -52 -32 0 -7 -10 -21 -12 LAND (KM) 1527 1516 1521 1536 1547 1599 1584 1346 1022 1028 1428 1299 936 597 372 205 163 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.1 30.2 31.9 34.5 37.8 41.1 44.6 47.1 46.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.1 52.4 52.7 53.1 54.0 54.7 53.8 49.7 42.8 34.6 26.6 20.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 7 11 18 28 34 34 26 20 23 21 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 25 24 20 17 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. 13. 17. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 51.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 13.1% 9.1% 7.7% 5.0% 9.8% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.6% 4.0% 5.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 8.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.9% 4.7% 5.5% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 41 41 41 40 41 41 43 47 51 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 38 39 39 39 38 39 39 41 45 49 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 34 35 35 35 34 35 35 37 41 45 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 27 27 27 26 27 27 29 33 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT