* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 34 35 37 39 42 43 43 44 46 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 34 35 37 39 42 43 43 44 46 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 29 31 33 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 17 20 23 22 21 14 13 12 12 9 12 15 25 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 276 240 258 277 292 293 294 275 281 263 268 276 323 334 338 353 17 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 135 133 133 135 130 132 134 131 137 139 139 145 149 151 153 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 67 66 64 64 67 65 63 61 57 55 59 58 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 13 7 4 8 0 8 -2 -15 -23 -29 -47 -55 -69 -81 -100 200 MB DIV 9 1 -16 -30 -30 -22 -10 33 33 11 -5 -5 -11 -1 -7 9 0 700-850 TADV 3 7 7 1 2 5 -1 0 -6 -7 -13 -12 -3 -4 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1383 1505 1623 1754 1883 2110 2104 2017 1923 1771 1610 1432 1286 1233 1234 1262 1265 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.7 34.9 37.0 38.9 40.8 42.8 44.8 47.0 49.2 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 16 18 17 34 23 34 36 26 21 18 25 20 27 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41. 40. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 21. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.7 30.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 13.8% 9.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 2.4% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 6.7% 3.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% 3.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 34 35 37 39 42 43 43 44 46 51 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 29 33 34 36 38 41 42 42 43 45 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 26 30 31 33 35 38 39 39 40 42 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 23 24 26 28 31 32 32 33 35 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT