* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 48 56 65 74 78 81 85 89 93 96 101 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 48 56 65 74 78 81 85 89 93 96 101 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 32 36 40 45 50 55 61 67 73 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 3 7 12 9 10 6 1 9 13 10 11 7 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 7 3 5 1 3 7 13 7 -1 -3 0 0 6 5 SHEAR DIR 103 156 241 195 167 188 173 215 161 235 10 330 359 322 308 243 231 SST (C) 27.5 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.9 27.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 138 140 138 134 132 127 138 133 143 140 140 143 148 144 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 75 75 70 64 61 55 54 55 59 63 62 64 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 13 14 16 17 17 18 19 18 17 18 18 19 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 53 52 49 57 50 42 24 19 13 0 3 -1 4 5 19 200 MB DIV 22 16 12 33 30 47 55 69 65 43 37 27 16 35 24 59 120 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 0 5 5 1 1 2 0 -1 0 1 8 17 31 LAND (KM) 1188 1293 1432 1597 1714 1637 1442 1187 984 807 712 656 629 522 465 585 696 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.6 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.5 30.0 31.7 33.4 37.1 40.9 44.4 47.5 50.0 51.7 52.8 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 16 17 17 19 18 17 13 10 7 5 6 8 11 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 32 37 23 17 19 8 37 15 48 46 51 58 55 36 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 27. 37. 46. 54. 60. 64. 67. 67. 69. 69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 28. 36. 45. 54. 59. 61. 65. 69. 73. 76. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 27.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.0% 6.1% 1.2% 0.7% 2.8% 3.8% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% Consensus: 1.3% 6.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 31 38 48 56 65 74 78 81 85 89 93 96 101 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 35 45 53 62 71 75 78 82 86 90 93 98 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 30 40 48 57 66 70 73 77 81 85 88 93 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT