* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 50 55 57 56 52 45 42 45 47 55 60 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 50 55 57 56 52 45 42 45 47 55 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 38 42 44 44 42 40 39 41 45 52 63 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 19 22 22 21 24 28 26 23 17 16 11 11 7 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -1 0 5 5 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 13 13 23 18 8 3 351 352 350 352 330 334 327 323 345 308 285 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 158 158 156 152 149 148 148 150 157 158 154 148 152 161 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 77 82 82 80 75 72 76 75 70 68 70 69 70 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 21 22 24 23 24 21 20 21 21 26 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 -8 -10 -12 -23 -4 15 34 47 61 67 68 60 49 39 36 200 MB DIV 46 84 107 132 128 145 126 146 96 51 12 36 40 45 44 39 16 700-850 TADV -5 1 1 0 0 4 5 6 5 5 0 -2 -5 -1 -6 2 4 LAND (KM) 1189 1193 1209 1242 1277 1306 1271 1184 1071 935 804 717 665 613 621 738 965 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 48 58 53 35 39 44 43 44 55 61 63 52 50 74 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 36. 42. 46. 49. 50. 49. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -17. -25. -31. -33. -34. -32. -29. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 6. 3. 4. 3. 9. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 20. 25. 27. 26. 22. 15. 12. 15. 17. 25. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 43.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 17.4% 11.3% 8.1% 5.7% 10.0% 11.1% 14.1% Logistic: 2.7% 9.7% 3.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 2.8% 1.9% Consensus: 2.0% 11.2% 5.6% 3.1% 2.1% 4.3% 5.3% 6.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 38 42 50 55 57 56 52 45 42 45 47 55 60 63 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 48 53 55 54 50 43 40 43 45 53 58 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 47 49 48 44 37 34 37 39 47 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 37 39 38 34 27 24 27 29 37 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT