* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 30 39 49 53 53 47 45 43 40 36 32 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 30 39 49 53 53 47 45 43 40 36 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 36 38 36 32 29 27 25 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 13 14 14 12 19 22 29 30 27 30 29 35 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 5 3 -1 -4 -3 2 3 1 1 -2 1 -2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 85 2 360 358 4 20 26 5 343 346 340 347 334 319 325 327 355 SST (C) 29.2 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 165 170 166 164 164 164 159 156 152 146 149 144 144 141 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.6 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 74 79 79 77 75 70 68 63 65 66 68 64 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 13 11 11 9 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 44 42 40 31 35 21 -15 -23 -33 -26 -29 -44 -36 8 16 200 MB DIV -19 -15 -10 6 31 77 128 126 104 100 68 68 43 21 35 61 94 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 4 0 -4 0 -1 1 3 15 39 LAND (KM) 1140 1275 1414 1539 1499 1376 1334 1423 1627 1702 1749 1788 1803 1742 1786 1946 2295 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.6 8.2 9.6 11.7 13.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.7 28.9 30.0 31.1 33.3 35.3 37.0 38.3 39.3 40.4 41.8 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 14 22 HEAT CONTENT 24 35 50 56 50 39 41 27 24 30 34 47 60 53 35 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -0. 6. 17. 29. 40. 49. 57. 63. 67. 69. 66. 66. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -17. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 29. 33. 33. 27. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.7 26.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.3 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.9% 4.0% 1.7% 1.1% 4.6% 10.5% 23.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.8% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.7% 3.5% 8.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 23 30 39 49 53 53 47 45 43 40 36 32 32 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 29 38 48 52 52 46 44 42 39 35 31 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 26 35 45 49 49 43 41 39 36 32 28 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT