* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 65 70 76 78 80 83 85 87 83 81 80 73 74 73 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 65 70 76 78 80 83 85 87 83 81 80 73 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 64 68 73 76 79 83 85 84 83 80 72 61 53 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 13 8 8 12 15 17 13 19 22 24 46 61 67 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 6 11 8 3 2 -3 6 7 4 -4 14 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 290 275 261 262 258 241 258 241 258 236 236 198 204 200 234 232 227 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.5 29.0 28.4 25.9 24.0 21.9 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 168 168 168 171 168 169 161 154 144 154 148 121 105 89 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 54 57 55 56 59 61 61 55 53 57 50 53 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 21 23 26 26 28 31 28 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 24 23 23 29 5 4 -7 -8 2 32 74 157 103 27 48 200 MB DIV 47 74 86 67 79 55 14 1 28 72 24 63 75 102 119 144 67 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -3 0 6 1 1 0 1 4 7 4 -12 -78 -7 -41 -22 LAND (KM) 447 340 237 176 162 64 18 58 229 411 572 854 1240 1521 1097 1208 1435 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.7 17.3 18.8 20.4 22.2 23.7 25.8 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.3 57.3 58.2 59.1 60.7 61.7 62.9 63.0 62.9 62.8 61.0 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 9 10 16 27 39 33 17 11 HEAT CONTENT 81 72 70 66 59 67 78 83 78 57 31 39 29 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 28. 22. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 3. 4. 8. 8. 9. 12. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 26. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 33. 31. 30. 23. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.4 55.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 44.6% 27.5% 16.3% 10.6% 23.5% 25.7% 22.7% Logistic: 9.3% 19.6% 12.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.9% 4.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 9.2% 5.7% 6.3% 0.5% 0.3% 3.5% 6.3% 0.2% Consensus: 10.3% 23.3% 15.3% 7.9% 4.3% 11.3% 12.1% 8.4% DTOPS: 11.0% 13.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 20.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 61 65 70 76 78 80 83 85 87 83 81 80 73 74 73 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 63 69 71 73 76 78 80 76 74 73 66 67 66 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 55 61 63 65 68 70 72 68 66 65 58 59 58 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 51 53 55 58 60 62 58 56 55 48 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT