* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 32 38 45 53 59 62 65 66 67 71 79 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 32 38 45 53 59 62 65 66 67 71 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 23 26 29 33 37 40 41 40 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 10 8 4 9 13 10 5 4 20 14 23 17 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 5 5 11 6 2 5 4 6 4 13 8 6 3 9 SHEAR DIR 238 260 260 260 267 117 122 125 114 58 224 246 268 290 307 3 24 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 153 153 156 157 150 152 153 162 161 159 153 154 162 170 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 67 71 71 78 79 77 73 71 66 68 70 74 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 1 8 5 7 12 14 16 18 20 13 15 20 23 38 32 200 MB DIV -10 -2 -4 11 30 28 72 91 99 86 33 15 3 32 54 113 88 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 637 714 798 877 977 1160 1363 1500 1352 1242 1169 1107 1057 1000 945 957 1039 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.2 25.1 26.7 28.4 30.3 32.2 34.0 35.8 37.5 38.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 33 30 30 36 45 56 45 47 61 66 73 70 62 54 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 28. 38. 49. 58. 66. 72. 76. 76. 79. 79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 7. 13. 20. 28. 34. 37. 40. 41. 42. 46. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 21.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.7% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 4.1% 17.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.7% 4.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.6% 4.4% 5.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 22 23 26 32 38 45 53 59 62 65 66 67 71 79 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 27 33 39 46 54 60 63 66 67 68 72 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 31 37 44 52 58 61 64 65 66 70 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 31 38 46 52 55 58 59 60 64 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT