* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 38 43 51 57 62 66 72 76 80 82 86 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 38 43 51 57 62 66 72 76 80 82 86 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 38 42 47 53 59 65 71 76 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 11 12 8 11 11 10 7 7 5 10 12 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 3 1 2 4 2 0 -2 0 0 3 1 5 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 109 233 225 235 272 302 11 55 99 76 80 289 282 281 266 295 295 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 160 158 154 151 153 156 152 147 152 157 154 161 162 168 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 64 63 64 70 71 78 80 82 76 76 74 74 70 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -11 -12 -1 -2 -9 -14 -4 -10 -5 -6 0 8 16 38 35 200 MB DIV 27 17 14 -5 -27 9 6 29 50 78 52 43 27 45 55 66 69 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 476 522 552 585 627 757 916 1093 1296 1502 1481 1399 1307 1248 1177 1103 1030 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.7 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.6 33.6 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 33 35 38 39 33 33 42 52 45 38 63 54 52 55 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 27. 36. 46. 55. 62. 67. 71. 70. 72. 73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 42. 46. 50. 52. 56. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 19.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.1% 9.9% 8.2% 5.8% 10.3% 11.9% 17.3% Logistic: 4.1% 18.4% 9.7% 5.1% 3.6% 12.9% 22.1% 43.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 10.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 5.2% Consensus: 2.5% 14.7% 7.4% 4.5% 3.2% 7.9% 11.5% 21.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/11/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 38 43 51 57 62 66 72 76 80 82 86 92 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 36 41 49 55 60 64 70 74 78 80 84 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 38 46 52 57 61 67 71 75 77 81 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 31 39 45 50 54 60 64 68 70 74 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT