* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 44 44 44 46 45 44 45 48 54 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 44 44 44 46 45 44 45 48 54 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 33 33 32 30 30 31 30 30 30 32 37 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 6 9 14 11 12 9 12 12 14 14 5 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 3 3 3 1 8 2 4 1 4 0 2 -4 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 85 136 137 153 184 183 181 193 244 312 318 10 77 105 134 159 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 134 134 128 118 116 117 118 117 117 114 108 106 107 109 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 76 74 65 56 49 47 45 43 38 36 32 33 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 18 20 19 18 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 11 850 MB ENV VOR 106 102 92 75 74 56 29 -28 -39 -61 -52 -58 -54 -54 -69 -74 -104 200 MB DIV 85 112 110 66 56 47 -3 -5 -18 0 3 -36 -21 -44 -29 -28 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 3 4 16 10 9 1 3 -2 0 -8 0 2 6 LAND (KM) 925 1001 1052 1086 1082 1129 1271 1424 1553 1628 1639 1526 1348 1199 1142 1198 1274 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.5 21.5 23.6 25.8 27.5 28.7 29.5 29.6 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.9 29.1 30.2 31.0 31.3 31.0 29.7 28.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 10 8 5 4 7 8 6 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 20 25 11 1 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 27. 28. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. -23. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 19. 19. 21. 20. 19. 20. 23. 29. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 26.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.5% 10.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.6% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 3.3% 4.8% 3.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 10.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.1% 1.4% 5.6% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 44 44 44 46 45 44 45 48 54 64 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 40 41 41 41 43 42 41 42 45 51 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 35 35 35 37 36 35 36 39 45 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 27 27 27 29 28 27 28 31 37 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT