* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 33 37 40 41 38 34 35 35 33 35 37 41 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 33 37 40 41 38 34 35 35 33 35 37 41 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 35 36 34 37 23 18 22 27 20 16 18 16 14 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -2 1 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 1 -2 1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 347 349 355 355 353 341 305 303 296 293 296 310 301 291 298 325 343 SST (C) 24.9 25.2 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.5 25.8 24.6 24.2 23.1 22.2 21.9 21.5 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 110 112 114 115 121 118 113 105 102 94 88 86 83 81 81 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -56.5 -56.7 -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 58 58 57 55 56 55 57 53 59 61 56 53 54 50 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 12 12 14 18 18 17 15 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 35 46 47 74 81 76 69 1 -21 -38 -40 -45 -43 -74 -97 200 MB DIV 7 1 2 3 33 27 30 17 43 14 11 -2 -28 -20 -26 -46 -8 700-850 TADV 9 9 13 13 11 15 9 6 11 25 36 15 16 4 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 1109 1135 1191 1260 1330 1527 1718 1848 1796 1609 1432 1444 1618 1837 1844 1743 1648 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.4 35.9 35.3 34.7 33.0 31.4 30.5 31.5 34.1 37.2 39.3 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.6 53.8 53.1 52.5 52.0 51.0 49.8 48.0 45.8 43.6 41.3 38.4 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 7 8 9 10 9 13 18 17 14 12 9 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 5. 4. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 8. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 12. 15. 16. 13. 9. 10. 10. 8. 10. 12. 16. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.6 54.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.11 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.2% 6.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 33 37 40 41 38 34 35 35 33 35 37 41 47 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 31 35 38 39 36 32 33 33 31 33 35 39 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 26 30 33 34 31 27 28 28 26 28 30 34 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 23 24 21 17 18 18 16 18 20 24 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT