* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 37 44 49 49 50 49 47 45 45 50 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 37 44 49 49 50 49 47 45 45 50 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 29 29 28 27 25 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 27 31 31 33 29 17 16 22 19 17 19 27 27 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 355 349 349 351 349 336 309 280 296 288 303 325 327 316 303 279 267 SST (C) 24.9 25.2 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.3 25.4 24.5 24.2 23.2 22.3 21.6 22.3 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 110 112 113 116 117 116 110 104 101 94 90 86 88 88 86 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -55.2 -55.8 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.5 -56.5 -55.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 58 57 54 53 53 51 56 59 52 59 54 51 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 12 14 19 22 20 20 19 17 16 15 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 16 30 29 34 44 63 88 95 70 18 -5 -25 -22 -18 -16 -32 -52 200 MB DIV 13 17 4 -2 6 31 25 18 37 24 -16 -17 -6 -34 -36 0 -12 700-850 TADV 8 7 6 7 11 5 9 3 13 17 16 14 11 2 0 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1086 1159 1202 1249 1321 1465 1634 1778 1756 1605 1467 1478 1700 1861 1656 1542 1458 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.2 35.8 35.4 34.8 33.6 32.2 31.2 32.0 34.4 37.2 39.2 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.3 53.3 52.5 51.7 50.6 49.5 47.7 45.4 43.0 40.7 38.0 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 13 17 16 14 14 14 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 5. 5. 4. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 17. 15. 15. 13. 9. 6. 4. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 24. 24. 25. 24. 22. 20. 20. 25. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.5 55.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.34 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 6.3% 4.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/11/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/11/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 34 37 44 49 49 50 49 47 45 45 50 56 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 32 35 42 47 47 48 47 45 43 43 48 54 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 30 37 42 42 43 42 40 38 38 43 49 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 22 29 34 34 35 34 32 30 30 35 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT