* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 31 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 18 15 13 17 19 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 4 0 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 259 268 288 314 35 61 64 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 144 142 146 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 56 57 51 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -23 -33 -43 -61 -74 -69 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 12 -9 -17 11 -27 -28 -11 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 3 2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1806 1754 1706 1686 1673 1680 1710 1695 1639 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 17.9 19.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.8 38.6 39.5 40.3 41.1 42.5 43.7 44.8 45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 29 35 43 49 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 37.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 11.1% 7.5% 5.0% 4.7% 7.7% 7.5% 11.6% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.1% 2.7% 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 2.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 29 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 21 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT