* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 45 45 44 48 46 49 46 48 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 45 45 44 48 46 49 46 48 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 40 39 38 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 18 21 23 24 26 22 26 19 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 1 -5 0 0 2 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 240 248 243 247 257 240 263 257 270 288 296 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 153 153 155 158 163 164 159 157 154 149 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 65 64 65 58 56 48 49 43 45 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 19 19 21 19 21 18 18 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 38 42 51 33 49 35 63 61 88 74 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 45 31 26 17 10 15 4 -2 -26 -31 9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 10 7 4 2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1383 1299 1220 1150 1089 951 846 796 760 733 725 706 657 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.0 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.2 49.2 50.1 51.1 53.0 54.5 55.7 56.4 57.1 57.9 58.8 59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 67 68 46 37 52 74 69 69 76 67 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. -19. -19. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. -2. -1. -5. -7. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -0. -0. -1. 3. 1. 4. 1. 3. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 47.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.8% 8.5% 7.6% 5.1% 8.5% 9.0% 10.1% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 1.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 45 45 44 48 46 49 46 48 49 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 45 45 44 48 46 49 46 48 49 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 42 46 44 47 44 46 47 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 38 36 39 36 38 39 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT