* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162023 09/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 48 37 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 41 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 48 45 34 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 32 36 42 39 36 35 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -4 -7 -6 -3 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 192 181 182 186 190 228 225 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.2 26.9 25.5 23.7 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 140 146 155 123 108 94 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 59 57 53 51 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 26 27 29 30 29 20 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 55 80 103 103 112 71 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 123 94 66 52 62 -33 17 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 12 11 17 25 10 7 12 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 529 455 383 301 224 5 -24 6 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.6 31.2 32.0 32.7 34.9 36.6 37.9 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.3 75.5 75.8 76.1 76.3 76.2 75.4 74.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 31 33 37 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -3. -12. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 17. 8. -3. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.9 75.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 11.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 55 57 41 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 50 52 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 44 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT