* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 58 63 68 73 78 85 92 99 103 107 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 58 63 68 73 78 85 92 99 103 107 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 46 55 63 72 79 87 95 104 114 118 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 10 10 12 15 15 17 19 9 15 12 3 2 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -6 -4 3 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 81 82 62 64 60 62 75 70 31 28 29 18 35 49 227 252 277 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 151 152 154 154 153 150 151 155 156 156 164 171 167 167 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 65 71 74 79 80 83 81 77 69 67 60 61 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 13 14 18 22 24 29 33 37 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 33 25 22 16 16 27 31 50 50 52 43 41 47 31 48 47 89 200 MB DIV 10 -6 -18 1 11 19 66 104 147 151 170 112 124 40 55 11 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 0 -1 -1 6 5 LAND (KM) 1577 1636 1694 1747 1711 1642 1565 1507 1506 1592 1630 1683 1680 1355 927 652 460 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.6 11.6 13.6 16.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.3 33.9 35.1 36.5 37.6 38.3 38.9 39.9 41.8 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 4 8 14 17 22 25 26 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 24 28 35 34 28 26 25 33 48 59 58 60 39 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 35. 44. 52. 57. 61. 62. 60. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -12. -14. -15. -17. -15. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 33. 38. 43. 48. 53. 60. 67. 74. 78. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 31.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.8% 10.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.8% 5.5% 1.8% 0.8% 5.0% 6.9% 28.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 5.7% Consensus: 1.7% 10.9% 5.8% 3.0% 0.3% 2.0% 6.6% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 58 63 68 73 78 85 92 99 103 107 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 38 46 57 62 67 72 77 84 91 98 102 106 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 41 52 57 62 67 72 79 86 93 97 101 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 33 44 49 54 59 64 71 78 85 89 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT