* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 55 62 67 69 70 69 66 64 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 55 62 67 69 70 69 66 64 62 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 58 65 71 73 72 68 64 61 62 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 9 8 12 6 9 13 14 22 31 33 35 32 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -2 -3 1 0 -2 0 -7 -6 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 91 54 55 65 55 86 123 141 157 175 166 156 133 120 96 80 63 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 155 155 155 151 151 154 155 152 147 143 154 163 167 169 167 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 10 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 65 66 65 68 63 63 59 55 52 50 49 49 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -21 -15 -13 -15 -3 -13 -5 -11 -7 12 33 69 88 88 79 200 MB DIV -9 -2 4 10 0 -2 4 5 4 14 31 61 54 69 72 25 40 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 1 1 4 4 6 8 10 11 7 6 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 927 1044 1161 1266 1361 1540 1708 1878 1978 1821 1656 1479 1235 975 765 608 586 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 14.9 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.1 31.8 33.4 35.0 36.8 38.8 41.0 43.3 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 9 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 28 28 25 22 21 36 34 41 45 31 34 62 51 49 65 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 30. 38. 44. 49. 53. 56. 56. 58. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -9. -16. -23. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 32. 37. 39. 40. 39. 36. 34. 32. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 26.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.5% 11.0% 8.4% 5.9% 11.1% 14.4% 32.8% Logistic: 7.2% 21.1% 15.8% 4.3% 1.6% 6.6% 8.8% 20.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 2.9% 2.5% 18.3% Consensus: 3.8% 15.2% 9.7% 4.3% 2.5% 6.8% 8.6% 23.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/10/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 55 62 67 69 70 69 66 64 62 60 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 52 59 64 66 67 66 63 61 59 57 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 47 54 59 61 62 61 58 56 54 52 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 38 45 50 52 53 52 49 47 45 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT