* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 57 63 66 68 70 67 64 60 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 57 63 66 68 70 67 64 60 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 50 56 61 63 62 59 56 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 9 10 10 11 8 13 13 18 25 36 39 37 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 -9 -6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 78 69 58 59 66 72 109 124 134 154 159 152 120 101 81 68 62 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.7 30.3 30.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 157 155 155 154 149 154 154 155 152 149 149 164 170 169 167 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 65 67 67 66 64 65 58 57 54 55 52 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -25 -18 -13 -14 -5 -13 -12 -1 -7 10 31 57 81 75 62 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -1 4 12 1 3 12 -7 15 28 58 56 49 58 20 50 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 7 7 9 7 5 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 800 908 1025 1144 1248 1449 1606 1775 1945 1877 1691 1477 1223 958 784 770 901 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.6 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.8 25.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 30.9 32.4 34.0 35.6 37.5 39.6 41.8 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 8 8 10 11 11 12 11 7 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 26 27 26 21 25 39 34 42 33 35 31 44 62 63 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 24. 32. 40. 48. 53. 58. 61. 62. 64. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. -16. -24. -31. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 32. 38. 41. 43. 45. 42. 39. 35. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 24.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.3% 10.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 25.5% 19.9% 8.4% 3.9% 11.0% 12.8% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 16.7% Consensus: 3.6% 16.0% 10.9% 5.0% 1.3% 4.1% 8.8% 13.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/09/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 57 63 66 68 70 67 64 60 57 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 47 55 61 64 66 68 65 62 58 55 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 42 50 56 59 61 63 60 57 53 50 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 34 42 48 51 53 55 52 49 45 42 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT