* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 09/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 65 63 59 51 42 34 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 65 63 59 51 42 34 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 65 63 60 51 41 33 29 27 27 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 28 29 32 33 24 33 22 19 16 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 12 14 9 12 9 -4 0 -2 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 274 258 231 226 208 201 210 199 212 160 137 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.3 26.9 25.7 25.2 22.3 19.8 19.0 17.0 15.6 15.4 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 131 126 114 109 90 80 77 72 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -48.7 -48.3 -48.0 -48.8 -48.8 -48.5 -48.4 -49.1 -50.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 47 44 41 45 50 50 47 57 64 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 32 34 34 35 34 30 28 24 20 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 76 59 58 65 29 8 -5 -12 10 44 53 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 36 69 82 94 139 95 51 61 31 46 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -12 -43 -61 -36 -42 -30 -24 -4 0 0 -2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 888 836 727 660 694 869 1110 1372 1503 1296 1128 973 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.3 39.1 40.2 41.2 43.4 45.4 46.8 48.0 49.5 51.1 52.6 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.9 56.0 54.1 52.0 49.8 45.5 41.7 38.0 34.3 31.3 29.0 26.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -7. -15. -24. -33. -40. -45. -49. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -2. -8. -15. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -11. -19. -28. -36. -40. -42. -45. -49. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.4 57.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.6% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 65 63 59 51 42 34 30 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 62 54 45 37 33 31 28 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 60 52 43 35 31 29 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 48 39 31 27 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT