* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 37 43 49 56 59 61 61 67 68 71 73 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 37 43 49 56 45 47 47 53 54 58 59 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 31 34 30 33 36 40 44 49 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 9 12 18 11 15 12 14 8 14 7 18 13 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 3 5 4 1 0 3 4 1 7 10 11 3 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 261 260 283 295 269 287 239 278 248 286 272 317 311 314 293 318 285 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 159 159 160 158 157 155 159 164 154 154 159 153 149 148 144 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 62 65 68 68 68 69 68 70 69 73 73 77 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 14 16 17 16 16 19 20 23 25 30 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 53 50 57 63 74 73 78 36 17 6 21 0 30 25 24 200 MB DIV 73 88 76 83 77 46 76 131 124 92 75 75 72 38 84 48 36 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 2 2 -1 5 7 15 13 15 13 17 12 -1 4 LAND (KM) 48 188 333 392 394 352 299 181 65 -72 96 260 427 440 550 692 939 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.3 19.0 20.6 21.6 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.7 63.0 64.3 65.4 66.4 68.3 69.7 70.6 70.9 71.0 70.2 68.5 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 6 6 7 10 8 11 11 10 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 39 47 56 68 99 82 59 55 64 62 56 41 40 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 22. 31. 38. 43. 47. 50. 51. 49. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. -3. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 18. 24. 31. 34. 36. 36. 42. 43. 46. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 61.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 23.0% 12.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 43.9% 27.4% 11.0% 5.6% 11.1% 9.2% 11.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 4.6% Consensus: 3.6% 23.6% 13.6% 6.3% 1.9% 3.9% 7.9% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 37 43 49 56 45 47 47 53 54 58 59 63 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 34 40 46 53 42 44 44 50 51 55 56 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 34 40 47 36 38 38 44 45 49 50 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 26 32 39 28 30 30 36 37 41 42 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT