* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 01/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 56 57 58 51 48 48 48 44 33 25 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 41 34 37 38 39 32 28 29 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 41 34 47 60 62 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 16 20 30 57 58 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 1 1 0 4 14 22 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 247 282 257 249 222 226 216 220 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 4.7 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.4 3.0 3.5 5.0 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 68 67 66 64 N/A 63 65 67 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -58.3 -59.4 -60.4 -61.2 -61.4 -63.5 -64.2 -64.5 -63.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 4.9 4.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 71 75 79 82 84 71 65 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 14 12 11 9 14 21 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 269 216 182 183 206 189 142 214 264 386 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 30 47 45 27 35 44 80 -21 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -22 2 10 3 -10 -44 -63 -213 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 57 13 56 -90 -56 203 546 1022 1204 1119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.3 48.0 50.4 52.1 53.3 55.0 56.7 59.3 63.6 68.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.1 59.4 58.7 58.1 57.4 54.7 49.9 43.5 36.9 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 21 15 12 14 19 25 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 26 CX,CY: 9/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. -26. -29. -32. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 1. -7. -16. -23. -30. -37. -45. -56. -62. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 28. 37. 47. 55. 60. 63. 66. 67. 64. 55. 49. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -7. 1. -5. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -17. -25. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 45.3 60.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9999.0 28.3 to 146.3 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 01/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 41 34 37 38 39 32 28 29 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 39 32 35 36 37 30 26 27 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 34 27 30 31 32 25 21 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 33 36 37 38 31 27 28 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT