* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 01/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 60 55 55 52 49 48 43 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 50 45 36 35 33 30 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 50 39 41 55 66 68 67 65 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 20 22 15 24 37 62 69 59 51 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 0 1 0 0 4 10 21 19 26 28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 176 205 240 262 255 243 236 223 215 195 179 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.4 13.6 3.0 2.7 0.1 0.4 3.0 3.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.3 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 73 69 68 66 63 63 65 66 64 62 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -56.2 -57.7 -58.8 -60.0 -62.3 -62.4 -63.9 -64.4 -63.4 -61.9 -59.5 -58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 6.0 5.4 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 65 67 72 76 84 86 79 73 69 63 60 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 16 16 14 9 10 11 12 14 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 330 260 249 214 181 175 212 166 240 297 292 294 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 68 34 36 42 29 53 48 38 -71 -92 -180 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -47 -25 -18 1 -9 -12 -14 -38 6 39 1 -15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 525 368 128 -37 14 89 366 716 1098 1008 923 856 902 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 42.1 45.3 48.3 50.9 54.1 56.0 58.0 61.1 64.9 67.8 69.4 70.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 59.6 58.6 58.0 57.2 55.6 52.8 48.3 43.1 39.9 40.3 42.3 41.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 29 31 28 23 13 14 18 21 18 12 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 18 CX,CY: 16/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 860 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -15. -22. -29. -36. -41. -50. -56. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 33. 42. 51. 56. 59. 61. 62. 58. 50. 43. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -4. -6. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -17. -23. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -12. -22. -27. -33. -38. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.9 61.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9999.0 28.3 to 146.3 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 01/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 59 50 45 36 35 33 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 46 41 32 31 29 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 42 37 28 27 25 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 31 30 28 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT