* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 01/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 56 56 52 49 51 61 60 51 50 50 45 39 31 25 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 56 56 36 36 38 48 47 38 37 37 32 26 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 54 55 38 42 60 71 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 11 15 17 14 20 27 52 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 7 10 9 5 -1 0 3 13 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 167 154 187 233 239 211 227 222 208 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 21.2 15.3 4.7 2.7 -0.6 0.3 3.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 88 75 69 68 N/A 63 65 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 81 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -54.0 -55.7 -57.5 -58.3 -60.5 -62.1 -62.9 -64.4 -64.5 -62.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 6.1 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 65 69 73 80 80 83 75 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 19 16 13 10 9 18 19 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 366 301 249 238 222 171 192 176 219 314 395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 18 50 29 35 45 43 55 62 -9 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -40 -37 -25 -21 -2 -12 -46 -67 -139 -153 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 653 611 450 191 20 -22 119 440 892 1294 1215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.9 41.3 44.5 47.5 51.8 54.0 55.6 57.9 61.6 66.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 61.5 59.7 58.7 58.1 56.8 54.7 50.5 44.4 37.6 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 23 30 32 28 16 12 17 23 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 990 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. -2. -8. -15. -22. -28. -35. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 28. 37. 46. 51. 54. 56. 56. 51. 42. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -22. -12. -13. -20. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -1. 1. 11. 10. 1. 0. -0. -5. -11. -19. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.8 63.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 01/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 01/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 01/16/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 56 56 56 36 36 38 48 47 38 37 37 32 26 18 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 51 31 31 33 43 42 33 32 32 27 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 26 26 28 38 37 28 27 27 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 20 20 22 32 31 22 21 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT