* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 31 33 37 43 46 48 49 49 49 50 53 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 31 33 37 43 46 48 49 49 49 50 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 23 25 29 32 32 29 27 26 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 46 44 29 15 11 6 7 8 13 24 20 30 38 40 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 6 10 2 1 0 2 6 7 6 0 0 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 276 279 291 296 276 272 229 244 206 218 209 231 242 249 261 267 263 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.9 25.6 22.0 17.9 16.3 17.6 20.0 20.9 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 140 142 144 138 131 128 125 113 91 78 76 80 86 87 176 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 40 44 50 53 56 61 61 63 59 54 43 36 35 37 35 37 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 15 17 18 16 13 11 10 11 18 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -9 -14 -25 -46 2 9 7 5 -11 -49 -103 -117 -38 45 80 200 MB DIV 1 13 23 30 43 1 23 20 55 29 56 26 8 -5 -11 23 28 700-850 TADV 9 5 1 7 11 10 8 26 15 28 26 16 -11 -12 -18 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 1788 1755 1763 1806 1869 1874 1645 1397 1150 961 892 1144 1407 815 370 -63 -97 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.3 30.4 32.6 35.1 38.0 41.0 44.5 47.7 49.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 46.9 47.4 47.6 47.6 47.3 47.0 46.5 45.4 44.0 41.9 37.4 29.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 21 24 29 32 31 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 17 18 17 11 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 2. 3. -1. -5. -10. -13. -12. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 3. 7. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. 23. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.4 46.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 31 33 37 43 46 48 49 49 49 50 40 31 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 29 31 35 41 44 46 47 47 47 48 38 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 25 27 31 37 40 42 43 43 43 44 34 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 19 21 25 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 28 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT