* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 43 44 43 42 43 44 42 40 40 42 51 59 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 43 44 43 42 43 44 42 40 40 42 51 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 41 40 40 39 37 35 35 35 36 37 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 12 18 12 12 8 12 10 11 16 18 31 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -4 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 -6 -3 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 21 15 14 10 3 39 65 81 78 39 23 19 359 349 330 306 292 SST (C) 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.6 24.9 24.2 24.2 24.5 25.1 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.0 16.8 16.7 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 108 108 108 103 99 100 102 107 73 74 74 74 76 76 76 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 52 52 47 48 47 42 40 42 45 52 56 59 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 18 16 16 15 13 11 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 63 63 61 43 32 0 -44 -75 -115 -131 -125 -99 -74 -41 1 200 MB DIV -17 -3 -8 -22 -35 -13 -22 5 -2 -4 0 10 0 -13 -22 -30 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 9 25 32 26 25 22 LAND (KM) 1829 1820 1813 1787 1762 1629 1460 1253 968 701 454 473 775 1241 1373 886 417 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 33.9 33.7 33.7 33.6 34.3 35.1 36.4 38.5 40.8 43.5 46.0 48.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 39.6 40.1 40.7 41.3 42.7 44.8 46.8 48.9 49.8 49.4 46.8 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 10 12 12 13 14 17 19 23 26 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. 1. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 5. 7. 16. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.1 39.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 12.1% 8.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.0% 4.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 40 43 44 43 42 43 44 42 40 40 42 51 59 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 41 42 41 40 41 42 40 38 38 40 49 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 38 37 36 37 38 36 34 34 36 45 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 31 30 29 30 31 29 27 27 29 38 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT