* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 36 37 42 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 36 37 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 38 39 39 40 40 39 39 38 36 35 34 33 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 20 14 11 13 10 18 18 16 12 12 17 18 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 344 33 36 33 29 16 25 36 75 77 88 66 26 40 30 41 29 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.0 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.2 23.5 19.9 19.0 18.6 17.7 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 97 98 100 103 103 99 100 99 99 95 79 78 77 74 75 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.0 -55.6 -55.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 46 49 50 50 46 45 42 42 42 44 45 51 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 45 60 61 68 67 65 49 31 2 -36 -62 -101 -117 -125 -125 -131 200 MB DIV -48 -52 -26 -37 -6 -5 -25 -18 -8 -7 0 -2 -8 -8 -7 -29 -39 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 -3 3 -7 0 4 15 17 10 LAND (KM) 1547 1633 1720 1771 1824 1841 1767 1642 1476 1278 1068 822 584 493 699 977 1228 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.0 35.2 34.7 34.1 33.5 33.6 34.3 35.1 36.4 37.9 39.9 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 39.6 39.3 39.2 39.2 39.9 41.2 42.4 44.4 46.1 47.7 48.9 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 4 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 2. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.8 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 37 37 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 36 37 42 45 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 35 37 39 39 39 38 38 36 34 35 40 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 32 34 36 36 36 35 35 33 31 32 37 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 27 29 29 29 28 28 26 24 25 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT