* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032023 06/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 63 68 69 72 73 71 68 69 66 64 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 63 68 69 72 73 71 68 69 66 64 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 59 63 65 66 63 61 59 58 57 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 9 3 3 2 5 17 16 25 23 25 25 25 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 6 8 14 16 7 2 1 -1 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 160 184 231 98 244 304 271 271 268 290 300 320 316 329 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.4 28.2 28.4 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 135 133 130 140 144 154 152 150 150 151 156 153 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 59 57 55 53 52 53 53 52 54 52 50 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 17 18 18 17 17 18 16 13 14 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 47 37 26 14 0 0 9 10 23 38 38 50 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 62 72 74 77 77 25 -22 -24 0 23 8 48 -4 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 4 -1 -1 -6 -7 -7 -4 0 -1 6 10 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1339 1222 1122 1042 958 879 727 451 241 79 162 172 98 58 30 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.4 43.0 44.6 46.1 47.5 50.0 52.7 55.3 57.6 60.2 63.1 65.6 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 11 12 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 18 33 13 12 44 39 50 29 43 40 52 72 46 39 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 29. 37. 43. 47. 50. 51. 50. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 1. -5. -8. -13. -16. -17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -9. -13. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 28. 33. 34. 37. 38. 36. 33. 34. 31. 29. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 41.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 THREE 06/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 26.1% 14.0% 9.7% 7.7% 12.1% 13.6% 14.7% Logistic: 10.4% 27.0% 19.6% 11.2% 4.1% 7.5% 3.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 3.1% 8.4% 10.4% 1.1% 1.4% 4.7% 12.6% 1.0% Consensus: 6.3% 20.5% 14.6% 7.3% 4.4% 8.1% 10.0% 5.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 28.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 THREE 06/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 THREE 06/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 55 63 68 69 72 73 71 68 69 66 64 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 58 63 64 67 68 66 63 64 61 59 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 50 55 56 59 60 58 55 56 53 51 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 43 44 47 48 46 43 44 41 39 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT