* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032023 06/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 59 67 71 72 77 75 74 73 76 77 81 87 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 59 67 71 72 77 75 74 73 76 77 81 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 63 68 70 68 64 64 65 67 73 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 6 3 5 4 9 22 22 23 18 16 16 14 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 4 9 14 10 0 -3 1 4 9 3 8 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 211 117 140 158 82 104 59 256 292 261 273 259 283 289 295 306 313 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.4 28.4 28.4 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 132 133 136 130 143 143 154 152 148 148 148 147 149 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 69 65 64 61 56 54 51 53 55 56 58 60 58 58 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 18 17 19 18 17 16 17 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 55 51 40 21 6 1 5 17 18 21 8 15 38 32 22 200 MB DIV 31 42 55 76 76 106 60 3 -27 -17 16 20 23 15 17 7 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 2 -1 -4 -6 -7 -2 3 2 5 7 11 10 14 LAND (KM) 1503 1358 1220 1123 1040 919 847 706 453 265 190 74 6 36 51 236 520 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 8 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 15 30 22 16 49 41 51 29 32 39 32 28 26 26 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 23. 32. 40. 47. 51. 54. 55. 54. 54. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 6. 2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 2. -1. -3. -6. -5. -7. -7. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 29. 37. 41. 42. 47. 45. 44. 43. 46. 47. 51. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 39.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 THREE 06/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 26.8% 14.8% 9.8% 7.8% 12.0% 13.9% 15.3% Logistic: 9.3% 25.0% 15.2% 6.0% 2.6% 9.4% 6.7% 2.8% Bayesian: 5.9% 29.3% 18.7% 3.7% 1.5% 6.4% 14.8% 1.6% Consensus: 6.6% 27.0% 16.3% 6.5% 3.9% 9.3% 11.8% 6.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 THREE 06/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 THREE 06/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 50 59 67 71 72 77 75 74 73 76 77 81 87 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 45 54 62 66 67 72 70 69 68 71 72 76 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 47 55 59 60 65 63 62 61 64 65 69 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 35 43 47 48 53 51 50 49 52 53 57 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT