* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 11/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 72 98 91 81 69 57 44 36 38 36 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 72 98 91 81 69 57 40 32 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 42 49 59 68 66 58 54 54 54 37 47 31 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 25 25 24 23 33 30 20 24 14 9 12 5 8 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 -1 2 3 13 -2 12 8 12 9 0 -3 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 231 212 219 229 202 191 224 215 207 276 292 266 224 232 281 N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.7 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.6 21.8 14.5 10.3 4.7 7.3 14.0 14.0 11.6 3.9 3.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 111 107 106 114 94 77 73 67 71 76 76 72 67 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 95 92 92 100 89 74 71 N/A 70 74 74 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.5 -57.6 -57.9 -58.3 -58.9 -59.3 -56.6 -55.0 -52.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -51.3 -53.0 -53.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 2.6 4.8 3.9 4.3 2.7 1.9 1.0 0.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 45 52 62 61 61 55 72 72 69 68 75 72 71 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 23 26 31 38 55 50 42 35 28 21 15 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 27 28 25 66 130 160 240 293 241 200 150 106 46 12 N/A 200 MB DIV 24 38 49 33 45 98 58 2 14 -1 19 -21 25 31 -54 -165 N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -11 -5 2 1 -29 85 -11 -29 21 49 -8 -11 -6 18 N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1157 1198 1211 1173 1058 1034 1403 1344 1180 926 1300 205 5 16 -198 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.8 36.2 37.9 41.0 47.9 57.1 60.5 56.3 51.2 52.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.5 55.9 54.5 53.0 51.6 48.2 42.9 34.0 30.6 41.8 42.5 29.1 13.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 20 36 52 39 24 36 51 44 33 26 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 11. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 10. 19. 42. 36. 25. 14. 4. -7. -14. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 37. 63. 56. 46. 34. 22. 9. 1. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.5 57.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.26 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 19.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 11/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 72 98 91 81 69 57 40 32 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 52 60 68 94 87 77 65 53 36 28 25 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 46 54 62 88 81 71 59 47 30 22 19 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 44 52 78 71 61 49 37 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT