* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 11/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 46 53 61 69 74 92 83 71 56 43 36 30 23 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 46 53 61 69 74 92 83 71 56 43 36 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 42 49 61 69 69 63 52 46 46 48 51 52 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 25 22 23 21 29 41 39 33 23 15 28 28 16 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 1 3 6 7 8 0 11 21 13 2 6 SHEAR DIR 243 245 246 226 231 211 202 212 218 249 257 240 213 200 223 290 304 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.0 21.0 14.4 13.2 11.0 9.3 7.4 2.4 3.6 3.6 8.2 POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 110 109 111 112 110 91 77 74 68 70 65 61 62 65 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 94 94 96 99 101 87 74 71 66 68 64 N/A N/A N/A 67 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.6 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -58.2 -59.0 -58.8 -57.7 -57.5 -54.5 -53.5 -54.5 -54.3 -52.5 -51.6 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 -0.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 42 44 53 62 58 60 44 51 53 60 49 42 45 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 21 26 31 36 49 44 35 27 22 18 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 28 36 41 61 77 132 126 74 144 220 72 46 37 5 79 200 MB DIV 19 33 24 35 21 66 116 39 18 37 91 16 -96 -97 -129 -68 -51 700-850 TADV -15 -7 -5 -7 -2 5 0 6 2 0 3 -13 46 44 26 18 1 LAND (KM) 1067 1111 1178 1253 1324 1303 1206 1301 1350 677 797 1331 1210 939 910 971 970 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.2 35.1 34.8 34.6 35.1 37.1 40.8 48.4 55.7 60.7 62.8 62.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 58.3 57.0 55.5 54.1 50.8 46.3 39.1 28.4 20.1 18.6 27.8 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 17 26 44 54 34 20 28 17 8 10 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. -3. -10. -14. -19. -21. -26. -33. -36. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 25. 26. 25. 21. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 6. 12. 20. 37. 30. 16. 5. -3. -8. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 39. 57. 48. 36. 21. 8. 1. -5. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.1 59.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.27 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 5.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 11/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 46 53 61 69 74 92 83 71 56 43 36 30 23 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 49 57 65 70 88 79 67 52 39 32 26 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 52 60 65 83 74 62 47 34 27 21 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 43 51 56 74 65 53 38 25 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT