* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 09/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 46 47 47 49 50 56 56 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 46 47 47 49 50 39 36 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 39 40 33 29 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 17 11 16 13 17 16 22 17 22 18 20 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 -1 0 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 243 244 253 258 277 281 303 310 311 292 282 261 281 256 281 250 255 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 143 146 149 153 156 164 165 165 169 165 163 171 166 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 137 140 143 147 150 158 159 159 162 157 152 158 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 55 52 52 52 55 57 59 62 65 67 71 73 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 6 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 9 6 3 9 3 3 5 22 16 19 11 28 18 30 23 200 MB DIV 25 24 32 17 10 10 -2 18 7 13 19 56 27 32 37 34 46 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -9 -9 -8 -9 -7 -9 -7 -7 -4 -6 0 -4 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1304 1287 1223 1117 1017 832 677 586 469 300 159 99 38 -56 7 100 152 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.3 51.5 52.7 53.8 56.0 58.1 60.1 62.0 63.8 65.6 67.3 69.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 25 23 29 48 66 60 43 60 93 98 88 58 49 46 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -16. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 19. 20. 26. 26. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 49.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.3% 6.2% 5.9% 4.0% 7.5% 8.2% 12.6% Logistic: 1.5% 3.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 3.2% 7.5% 18.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.7% Consensus: 2.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 5.6% 10.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 09/14/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 46 47 47 49 50 39 36 42 43 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 38 40 43 44 44 46 47 36 33 39 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 34 36 39 40 40 42 43 32 29 35 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 29 32 33 33 35 36 25 22 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT