* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 09/14/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 35 39 42 43 43 45 48 52 53 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 35 39 42 43 43 45 48 41 37 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 29 28 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 12 11 14 16 15 18 17 20 22 22 24 21 23 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 -1 2 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -7 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 224 245 255 252 263 278 287 315 297 309 289 289 278 271 265 251 234 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.0 30.4 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 140 141 149 153 157 162 167 166 169 171 170 171 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 134 136 142 148 152 157 162 161 163 170 162 168 153 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 55 53 52 54 54 54 56 59 63 64 69 73 78 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 3 7 2 -7 8 1 0 10 15 25 17 25 16 22 30 200 MB DIV 20 21 24 24 23 15 0 4 6 2 11 43 42 39 43 66 65 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -10 -9 -6 -10 -7 -7 -7 -3 -1 -2 4 5 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1329 1314 1277 1217 1119 921 748 613 557 365 207 124 70 -24 0 142 196 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.1 50.3 51.5 52.6 54.9 57.0 59.1 61.1 63.1 65.1 67.0 68.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 36 37 25 22 38 61 69 49 48 90 101 93 55 51 46 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 20. 23. 27. 28. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 47.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 5.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.4% 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 7.9% 20.8% 36.3% Bayesian: 3.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 3.2% 1.7% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 3.0% 2.5% 0.2% 2.8% 10.4% 12.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 09/14/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 31 35 39 42 43 43 45 48 41 37 40 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 32 36 39 40 40 42 45 38 34 37 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 28 32 35 36 36 38 41 34 30 33 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 21 25 28 29 29 31 34 27 23 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT