* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 09/14/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 43 46 46 47 47 51 52 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 43 46 46 47 47 51 44 35 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 38 34 30 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 7 8 14 11 19 18 20 18 25 21 21 23 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 -4 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 246 258 253 254 276 278 295 308 306 298 292 267 266 254 268 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 141 141 141 148 155 159 162 166 168 171 171 169 169 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 136 136 135 135 142 150 154 158 160 162 164 164 157 155 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 60 58 57 52 53 52 55 56 59 61 65 69 73 74 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 10 0 5 -5 1 0 -6 -12 9 4 13 11 28 12 24 200 MB DIV 11 27 10 21 26 -5 -10 -12 -14 12 36 19 49 36 43 44 49 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -7 -10 -7 -8 -6 -7 -3 -3 -1 0 7 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 1334 1304 1283 1256 1230 1054 883 734 651 455 244 89 77 -28 -11 78 167 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.8 48.9 50.0 51.1 53.2 55.3 57.4 59.6 61.8 63.9 66.1 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 31 39 30 24 42 63 68 52 68 88 88 75 56 45 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 21. 22. 22. 26. 27. 31. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 46.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.3% 7.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.0% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 4.5% 14.3% 29.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 4.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 2.7% 1.1% Consensus: 2.5% 7.4% 3.9% 2.6% 0.1% 2.1% 8.6% 10.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 09/14/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 09/14/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 43 46 46 47 47 51 44 35 39 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 36 40 43 43 44 44 48 41 32 36 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 32 36 39 39 40 40 44 37 28 32 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 28 31 31 32 32 36 29 20 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT