* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 07/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 37 39 38 39 38 37 33 28 24 20 18 19 21 23 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 37 39 38 39 38 37 33 28 24 20 18 19 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 37 36 35 33 31 28 27 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 26 17 14 22 13 22 30 37 41 47 27 25 15 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -4 -1 -2 -6 0 -4 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 302 307 335 345 336 334 341 331 343 358 359 344 343 318 282 285 306 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.8 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.2 23.5 23.1 23.4 22.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 130 129 132 134 114 114 113 111 109 98 96 99 96 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 109 107 106 109 112 96 96 95 96 96 88 86 90 87 79 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -55.3 -55.9 -55.6 -55.7 -57.0 -57.4 -58.1 -58.3 -59.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 8 5 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 64 62 68 52 46 43 52 59 54 52 55 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 4 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -93 -110 -83 -58 -54 -26 -40 -67 -115 -73 -43 -23 -65 -44 -36 -33 200 MB DIV 17 12 7 3 3 -5 8 -24 -72 -73 -4 9 23 10 34 40 18 700-850 TADV 2 4 0 2 9 5 8 5 6 11 17 18 36 12 2 21 7 LAND (KM) 52 53 50 59 75 98 107 230 368 537 711 874 963 1034 915 948 1260 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.5 32.7 33.1 33.9 34.2 34.2 34.0 34.3 34.9 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.1 79.7 79.2 78.7 77.6 76.0 73.9 72.1 70.2 68.1 64.9 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 9 8 8 7 11 16 19 20 24 25 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 12 8 7 9 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -27. -32. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 9. 8. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -11. -9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 80.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 07/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.7% 6.4% 5.7% 3.8% 6.4% 7.0% 5.7% Logistic: 2.9% 8.9% 4.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 2.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.7% 3.0% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 07/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 07/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 37 39 38 39 38 37 33 28 24 20 18 19 21 23 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 34 35 34 33 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 30 31 30 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 21 22 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT